Making sense of Browns blockbuster trade for QB Deshaun Watson, 2-3 year outlook
QB Deshaun Watson picks Browns over Falcons and Saints
Browns Get:
QB Deshaun Watson (5-year, $230M deal)
2024 5th-round pick
Texans Get:
2022 1st-round pick (No. 13)
2022 4th-round pick (No. 107) via DET
2023 1st-round pick
2023 3rd-round pick
2024 1st-round pick
2024 4th-round pick
Analysis:
Franchise quarterbacks don’t come around too often, especially ones who are in the prime of their career at age 26. The rumor mill was that Watson’s services would command a steep price.
Ultimately, Browns GM Andrew Berry was willing to give up the “farm” yielding five draft picks including three first-rounders.
By default, this puts the Browns future salary cap in a potential bind. Rookie contracts are predetermined by the CBA in terms of years, maximum amount, etc.
For instance, if a player drafted in the first-round outperforms his four-year rookie deal in only his second season, he won’t be able to re-negotiate a new contract until after year 3.
By then, the team has the right to exercise a 5th-year club option. The player will essentially be out-leveraged and will play out his rookie deal before that coveted front-loaded contract extension goes into effect. (see DE Nick Bosa).
Typically, good GMs like to extend the player in Year 4 or the year prior to entering that contract year to stay two steps ahead. But not all do.
By utilizing your draft capital, you can leverage the salary cap with young, talented players on less expensive deals than those on the open market (proven veterans) while the on-field production may be the same or even better.
No question, Berry is taking a big risk. The $230M fully guaranteed contract is the richest in NFL history while GMs cringe as the bar has been reset.
But as the saying goes, “Go big or go home.” And Berry essentially tied his fate to Watson.
Did Browns give up too much?
Absolutely not. In order to provide that assessment, I put my business management skills to work when evaluating a 2-3-year vision OR in business terms 2-3-year business plan.
The meat and potatoes comparison of this blockbuster deal comes down to the Browns yielding three first-round picks:
2022 1st-round pick (No. 13)
2023 1st-round pick
2024 1st-round pick
Needs: WR, OC, DT, DE, MLB, OLB, SS
BEASTwriter GM
As a GM, it’s your job to project and predict who will likely be available when you’re on the clock.
Sitting at No. 13 and with the needs mentioned above--top-2 WRs; Garrett Wilson and WR Drake London will be well off the board. Do you draft OC Tyler Linderbaum at No. 13.
Not likely. As mentioned in an earlier article, centers aren’t as highly coveted as it’s not viewed as a premium position. Now let’s flip the script by addressing the team’s defensive needs…
Two players who will likely be available based on my BWF analytics include NT Jordan Davis and DT DeMarvin Leal.
Davis like Linderbaum does not play a premium position. If the team lined up in a 3-4 base--different story, but Browns are a traditional even-man front. So you can remove him from the picture.
Leal is one of the cleanest prospects in this draft class. Some scouts I spoke with believe he can play a 3T, 4T, or 5T. Based on my scouting report, his best bet is playing a 3T in a 4-3 base.
Who would you rather have? Leal and two first-round picks or a sure thing in Watson? Give me the franchise QB with potential Hall of Fame production.
What about DE? Who will likely be available at No. 13? There’s a couple.
DE Jermaine Johnson
DE George Karlaftis
Both of those players have talent but will they be Top-10-15 EDGE rushers in the NFL? I don’t think so.
Then there’s the other three pressing needs: MLB, OLB, and SS
Players who would be available include:
MLB Nakobe Dean
OLB David Ojabo (torn Achilles)
FS Daxton Hill
Dean is a Pro Bowl talented player. In fact, he is my early pick for Defensive Rookie of the Year (I’ve been perfect with my BEAST receipts on that the last three seasons). He’s the ONLY player who would make this Watson deal trending on equal ground…
I graded every single snap of Dean along with the other Georgia products and will post my Big Board shortly…
If you see my logic; the projected cluster of players when the Browns were on the clock clearly don’t stack up to 1/3 of Watson’s talent alone.
The other 2/3 are relatively unknowns (2023 & 2024 1st-round picks). But we still need to project and predict.
Based on the Browns win-now roster, those first-round picks will likely be in the 20-32 range.
Watson plays in the highly competitive AFC North. There are no guarantees from one year to the next on who comes out on top or makes the playoffs. Unlike other divisions like the AFC South where it routinely comes down to two teams; Titans OR Colts.
Still, the Browns have the best 1-2 punch with RB Nick Chubb & RB Kareem Hunt--backed up by one of the best OLs in the NFL led by OG Joel Bitonio, OG Wyatt Teller, LT Jedrick Wills and RT Jack Conklin. And recently placing the franchise tag on TE David Njoku.
They wipe their hands clean of WR Odell Beckham Jr. and WR Jarvis Landry but upgrade with 2016 Pro Bowler WR Amari Cooper (I never count alternate selections).
On defense, their core roster has top-5 EDGE Myles Garrett, under-the-radar trade asset DE Chase Winovich, OLB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, CB Denzel Ward, CB Greg Newsome and SS John Johnson.
DE Chase Winovich
If you’re asking me how good Winovich is, I graded every single snap dating back to 2020 and he’s been graded with a 5.8/10 which is slightly above-average starter.
BWF Analysis:
A very smart, savvy, football player, Winovich is a player who understands speed-to-power conversion while displaying a non-stop motor. However, he does have mental lapses in run-fits, due to not being able to shed off his stack, going rogue by simply bull-rushing his way into a gap (kamikaze), while not being a sure-tackler in space.
However, his leverage game is apparent and while he may not be the strongest, he does do a nice job of rushing the passer in spot situations (as he splits reps with 2nd-string on every other drive). From using a spin move, speed-rush, rip, or swim, Winovich can be lined up all over the line to create havoc behind the LOS.
If Winovich can clean up his gap-integrity discipline, he will be in line for Pro Bowl berths, if not, he will be a borderline average starter in the NFL. (5.6-5.8)
Salary cap outlook (perfect storm)
Of the core players mentioned, all but: RB Kareem Hunt, TE David Njoku, DE Chase Winovich, and CB Denzel Ward are due to be UFAs in 2023.
The Browns have opened a 2-3 year window to get Watson a ring. This is a contract-year for Winovich, and if he shines, look for the team to prioritize him as the 1-2 counterpart to Garrett.
Hunt will likely be let go. Only so much money to go around and you can find a strong backup with critical traits in later rounds.
Njoku didn’t get the tag for no reason. Watson needs all the weapons he can get from the Y position and by Berry slapping the tag likely means long-term deal may be in the works not just a one-year rental.
Ward will likely be retained. The 2023 NFL draft class isn’t the strongest for CBs and Ward is one of the better young CBs in the NFL having been named to two Pro Bowls since entering the league back in 2018.
The same can be said of OC, DE, MLB, OLB and SS for the upcoming 2023 NFL draft.
Top-10 2023 UFA targets
OC Erik McCoy (Saints)
OC Brandon Linder (Jaguars)
DT Javon Hargrave (Eagles)
DT Grady Jarrett (Falcons)
DT A’Shawn Robinson (Rams)
ILB Roquan Smith (Bears) | may get non-exclusive franchise tag
OLB Azeez Al-Shaair (49ers)
CB Emmanuel Moseley (49ers)
CB Jaire Alexander (Packers) | may get non-exclusive franchise tag
FS Jimmie Ward (49ers)
Analysis:
If salary cap allows and Berry can persuade some of his players to restructure their contracts in the form of a signing bonus spread over the life of the contract, two of those players should be on their wish list.
WR Brandin Cooks trade?
Cooks has been traded three times during the course of his 8-year career; all involving a 4th-round pick.
If the Browns decide to go all-in in 2023, they can give up their 2023 second-round pick, and get Cooks + 4th-rounder.
Cooks has a $16.2M 2022 cap number with $7.5M in dead money, so unlikely Browns can fit him in their cap this upcoming season. Plus, no guarantee that Watson plays this year anyway.
2023 is a different story--cap number drops to $5M but Texans GM Nick Caserio also has to absorb $5M in dead money, so $0 cap savings.
Why Cooks? Well, he would instantly give Cooper some slot help while being a deep threat between the 20s. The 2014 1st-round pick (No. 20) quietly has six 1,000+ yard seasons in eight years.
In 2020 playing alongside Watson, Cooks amassed 81 catches for 1,150 receiving yards, and 6 touchdowns (including 20 BIG PLAYS of 20+ yards).
It would be a match made in heaven.
While on the surface it appears that the Browns gave up the “farm” for Watson but after doing my due diligence in providing my BEAST analysis, 2-3 year outlook, salary cap ramifications, scheduled UFAs, and potential trading partners; this trade may be in the Browns favor long-term. Time will tell.
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