How much is Pittsburgh Steelers T.J. Watt really worth?
In today’s NFL, you need a premier pass-rusher who can single-handedly transform a defense. A player who despite being the focal point of opposing offenses, can still create consistent pressure on any given play. Those players are rare.
I mean let’s be honest. Can you name a defensive player who creates more problems for offensive coordinators than Pittsburgh Steelers OLB T.J. Watt? Only one name comes to mind, three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year, DE Aaron Donald.
Last year, Watt was the runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year. Donald received 27 votes to Watt’s 20. In 2019, Watt received 10 votes, placing third in the year-end award. I can see how Watt lost to Darnold in 2020 but not to New England Patriots CB Stephon Gilmore, the year prior.
I would argue that Watt had a better campaign than Gilmore based on my grading system. I started covering the Steelers for Sports Illustrated in 2019 and over the years covering the Niners as a beat writer (2013-2018) for the team, I developed my own grading system.
I don’t rely on PFF, I formulate my own analysis and use my grading system when exercising my year-end voting rights as a member of the PFWA (Pro Football Writers Association) for MVP, Comeback POY, Rookie of the Year, All-Pro teams, etc.
Anyone can look up box scores but what does the raw data tell you? I peel back layers of the onion to get to the core when it comes to the best EDGE rusher in my grading system, as I grade his every snap over the last two seasons.
Grading System
In 2019, Watt had a monster season registering 14.5 sacks, 11 QB hits, 29 QB pressures, 8 forced fumbles, and 4 fumble recoveries (led team in all categories). Furthermore, he remained disciplined in his run-fits, amassing 9 TFLs (-23 yards), 3.5 tackles for no-gain, and 8.5 tackle wins.
And we are only getting started.
When it comes to his pass coverage ability, he has that box checked too; 2 interceptions, 5 PBUs, and 1/2 TFL (-1). The guy was all over the field.
However, nothing drives a coach crazier than undisciplined gap integrity from one of his star players. Fortunately, for HC Mike Tomlin and DC Keith Butler, Watt remained fundamentally sound, as I only accounted for 9 missed assignments, and 14 missed tackles vs run in 2019.
So what’s Watt’s weakness? Again, the box scores don’t tell the whole story. But for me, it’s the hidden yardage. In 2019, Watt was penalized 8 times, resulting in 60 yards of hidden yardage. Six of those eight penalties were neutral zone infractions (pre-snap penalties).
But I can live with that. Why? Because the ROI (return on investment) of sacrificing those penalties for Watt’s initial get-off is worth it. If you can produce Watt-type numbers, you get the green light.
Watt finished the 2019 campaign with a grade of 7.6 out of 10. That’s an All-Pro level in my grading system (7.3 and above is All-Pro). He was also the highest-graded Steelers defensive player. The runner-up? A two-way tie between DE Stephon Tuitt (7.3) and OLB Bud Dupree (7.3).
Fast forward to 2020, and again Watt had a monstrous season. In my BWF grading system, Watt racked up 15 sacks, 15 QB hits, 22 QB pressures, and 2 forced fumbles.
When comparing the raw data from 2019, Watt increased his sack total by 0.5, had 4 more QB hits, 7 fewer QB pressures, 6 fewer forced fumbles, and 2 fewer fumble recoveries.
When it comes to his pass coverage ability, Watt again came up big with one interception and 7 PBUs. Furthermore, what the box score doesn’t show and my grading system reveals is his target rate. Watt was targeted only four times and yielded one completion for 20 yards.
But a great player is not a one-trick pony. Watt is equally effective vs the run and pass evidently by registering 11 TFLs (-25), 4.5 tackles for no-gain, and 11 tackle wins.
When comparing the raw data from 2019, Watt increased his TFLs by two, tackles for no-gain by 1, and tackle wins by 2.5. Overall, you can say the raw data would tell us that Watt’s 2020 campaign surpassed his 2019 season.
But not so fast.
To play a little bit of devil’s advocate, we need to analyze his discipline in gap integrity. In 2020, Watt increased his total missed assignments to 18, up from only 9 the previous season. But only 10 missed tackles, down from 14 the year prior. I consider this an even trade.
The kicker was his discipline in pre-snap play. After giving up 8 penalties and 60 yards of hidden yardage in 2019, Watt powered back in a positive way, yielding only three penalties for 10 yards of hidden yardage. A huge leap for the best EDGE rusher in the NFL, so yes, when it’s all said and done, the grade reveals Watt had a better 2020 season than he did in 2019.
Grade: 7.7/10
But how does Watt compare to the other top defenders in the game? After all, he is seeking DT Aaron Donald money. I got you covered as I have grades on those players as well.
Let’s start with AD.
In 2020, Donald amassed 13.5 sacks, 10.5 QB hits, 25 QB pressures, 4 forced fumbles, and 1 fumble recovery. On the surface, you would think Darnold is losing ground to Watt, but the two play vastly different positions. Watt is an EDGE rusher in a 3-4 base defense while Donald is a 3-4 DE (space-eating penetrator).
I would argue that it’s harder to generate pressure on the interior than simply screaming off the edge. But you can’t knock Watt for that, it’s just two vastly different positions. But what we can compare is gap integrity. That comes down to fundamentals.
When comparing the two in 2020, Donald had 13 missed assignments and 9 missed tackles verse the run. The difference results in five fewer missed assignments and 1 fewer missed tackle, ultimately, a win for Donald.
But you want an apples-to-apples comparison. Who doesn’t? Let’s take another EDGE rusher and see how they stack up to Watt. How about Cleveland Browns DE Myles Garrett.
In 2020, Garrett recorded 12 sacks, 6 QB hits, 23 QB pressures, 4 forced fumbles, and 2 fumble recoveries. Respectable raw data from a pass-rushing efficiency perspective, but he gives up way too much in run-fit integrity, as I have him down for 21 missed assignments.
Combine that with six penalties yielding in 30-yards of hidden yardage, and he doesn’t even touch Watt’s combination of sound play and disruptive production. The numbers don’t lie, Watt is clearly the better overall player; 3 more sacks, 9 more QB hits, three fewer penalties, and 3 fewer missed assignments vs the run.
It’s the comparables that Watt will want to leverage when seeking a long-term deal as the highest-paid defensive player. You can’t just sit at the table and say, “I’m the best player in the NFL, pay me what I’m worth.” You need to leverage that talk with numbers backed up by data.
If you are Watt’s agent, you will need to again, test the comparables. Take, for instance, Chicago Bears OLB Khalil Mack. Another player often touted as the best EDGE in the game. Though, I disagree.
In 2018, he inked a six-year, $141M deal ($90M guaranteed), making him the highest-paid defensive player. But was he worth all that bread? My BWF grading system would say no.
In 2020, Mack received my vote for PFWA 1st-team All-Pro but he’s not the best EDGE in the NFL, I give the EDGE to Watt. (see what I did there)
Let’s peel back another layer of the onion to get to the core.
In 2020, Mack had 9 sacks, 2 QB hits, and 16 QB pressures. When comparing the raw data to Watt, the Steelers EDGE holds the EDGE in sacks (6 more), QB hits (13 more), and QB pressures (6 more).
Furthermore, let’s analyze the run-fit integrity. Mack has 20 missed assignments, 11 missed tackles, and 1 penalty. Compare that data to Watt, and the Wisconsin product again holds the slight edge; 2 fewer missed assignments, 1 fewer missed tackle, but two more penalties.
But what about explosive production? In 2020, Mack recorded 5.5 TFLs (-15), 3.5 tackles for no-gain, and 10 tackle wins. Compare the raw data and again Watt wins out; 5.5 more TFLs (-10), 1 more tackle for no-gain, and 1 more tackle win.
The math speaks for itself, and the film never lies. If Donald and Mack can reset the market then no question Watt can too. The analytics may not tell the whole story and I understand that not everyone is going to agree with my analysis or BWF grading system. Just know that when it’s time for Watt to get paid, there are other metrics and raw data to pull from that would suggest Watt’s market value as the highest-paid defensive player.
In the end, Watt will be the highest-paid defensive player. And based on my analytics, I’m thinking that his contract will be in the ballpark similar to a six-year deal, valued at $145-$155M with $95-100M guaranteed.
A deal is going to get done. It’s just a matter of when, as the season is just around the corner. Will Watt be in game shape? That all depends on how he’s been training in the offseason where muscle memory plays a vital role in a players ability to bring together that mind, muscle, connection.
What are your thoughts Steelers Nation? LIKE, COMMENT, SHARE!!!!!
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