Fantasy Football 101: Don't sleep on 49ers RB Trey Sermon and Jets RB Michael Carter in ZBS
When the San Francisco 49ers were on the clock in the third-round (No. 88), I wanted them to draft RB Michael Carter. Instead, the team drafted RB Trey Sermon. I’m happy with either.
I thought Carter was a better scheme-fit for Kyle Shanahan’s zone-blocking scheme, taking advantage of his vision as a one-cut back. His greatest strength is his innate ability to allow lead blockers to set up running lanes for him. Whether running off-tackle or working off backside seal-blocks, Carter was the perfect scheme-fit for Shanahan’s offense.
Instead, the New York Jets selected him in the 4th-round (No. 107) while the Niners favored Sermon. Same scheme, different teams. Remember, former 49ers passing game coordinator OC Mike LaFleur followed HC Robert Saleh to be the team’s offensive play-caller.
Fantasy Football prediction
No question, Carter has the intangibles to be an every-down back. People who label him as small, have no idea what they’re talking about. Short (5-8) yes. Small? No. The guy is rock solid weighing 201 pounds.
Knowing what I know about Saleh and LaFleur is that they do favor a running back by committee approach. I covered both as a beat writer with the San Francisco 49ers, and if I had to take a guess, it’s RB Tevin Coleman and RB Michael Carter garnering the lion share of the reps.
However, they will also go with the hot hand and while Coleman is the lead back today, his injury history will tell us it won’t be tomorrow. In 2016, Coleman was dealing with a hamstring injury, forcing him to miss multiple games. In 2019-2020, a high-ankle sprain, shoulder injury, and knee sprain forced him to miss significant time, prompting the 49ers to go in another direction.
That opens the door for Carter. If you’re a fantasy football player, you want to pick up Carter in your league. Although the Jets will go with the RB by committee approach, Carter will be the lead back midway via the season. He will get the lion's share of the reps and he will produce as your “sleeper” pick.
Predicted stat line: 116 rushes for 510 rushing yards (4.4 avg.) and 4 TDs, 34 catches for 250 receiving yards, and 1 TD.
RB Trey Sermon
Then there’s Sermon. I’m already on record saying I love the Sermon pick and believe he potentially could be an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate when it’s all said and done. That’s how highly I think of Sermon in terms of fantasy football sleepers.
Now, I will say, that I already made my predictions for OROY and DROY with Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris and Dallas Cowboys OLB Micah Parsons but don’t sleep on Sermon.
I like RB Raheem Mostert but can he sustain health for a full 17-game schedule? I don’t think so. Prove me wrong. Eventually, Sermon will be the workhorse, it’s just a matter of when. I think that time will be by Week 8-10.
At 6-0, 215, Sermon is a much bigger back than Carter but still packs a strong contact balanced game. A good coach will put his best players in the best position to make plays. Shanahan is highly regarded as one of the best offensive minds in the NFL. He’s not going to allow Sermon to do anything he’s not good at.
In my grading system, vision and decisiveness are two flaws in Sermon’s game. But that’s not a problem because Sermon is playing in a ZBS (zone-blocking scheme). The instinctive ability to get skinny between the tackles is more power-based where linemen are asked to down block.
In a ZBS, the running lanes are dictated by the cut-back reads based on how the play develops in real-time, essentially taking the guesswork (instincts) out of it. Sermon is a player no one is giving much credit. His preseason was average at best but his physical traits to be an every-down back are there.
He has strong COD (change of direction) skills, above-average contact balance, deceptive speed, and is a strong finisher as a ball-carrier. He will fight for those extra yards, be a nice red-zone threat coming out of the flat, and will be a dual-threat fantasy football stud.
Too many people are shying away from Sermon’s fantasy value because of the players ahead like RB Raheem Mostert. But you don’t draft running backs in the third-round to not get lion’s share of the reps. If you watched Sermon’s CFP film, you will know that his talent is too good to be wasted on the sidelines as a plan B option.
Fantasy Football prediction
I’m telling you now, DRAFT HIM as one of your SLEEPERS!!!!
Predicted stat line: 140 carries for 728 rushing yards (5.2 avg.), 6-8 TDs, 34 catches for 250 receiving yards, and 1-2 TDs.