Prop Bets: Why RB Ezekial Elliott will rush for under 52.5 rushing yards
The NFL season is just around the corner and with that comes the fun. The season kicks off with the Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Bucs on Thursday Night Football. Now, before we start talking about my prop bets for the game, we first need to analyze the dynamics of both teams.
Injuries play a role and so does COVID-19. The Bucs caught a huge break when Cowboys OG Zack Martin was ruled out due to testing positive. That’s bad news for the high-powered Cowboys offense who is already thin on the interior.
"Zack's our best player on our offense. I mean most runs, they coming back behind him," running back Ezekial Elliot said. "It's disappointing but you can't harp on it, can't let it be more than what it is. I mean, definitely going to miss him, definitely wish he was out there, but we still have a game to go play and we got to try and get the job done."
The Cowboys elected not to bring back former 49ers OG/OC Joe Looney which paved the way for second-year OC Tyler Biadasz to be the entrenched starter.
Since 2013, the Cowboys had little to no worries from their offensive line signal-caller. That position was anchored by three-time All-Pro OC Travis Frederick before retiring in 2019. Remember, the 49ers elected to trade up with the Cowboys for FS Eric Reid while the Cowboys selected Frederick at No. 31.
Now with Martin ruled out, the right side of the interior is going to take a hit. The backup? OG Connor McGovern. He is strong at the POA but gives up way too much in pass-pro. He often over-sets allowing interior rushers to create pressure off inside moves.
Not only that but McGovern is questionable at best when climbing the second-level. Do you really think he can handle the moving targets of Bucs ILB Devin White and ILB Lavonte David? Nope.
But the injury bug for the Cowboys doesn’t stop there.
LG Connor Williams just cleared protocol for COVID-19 while RT La’el Collins has been dealing with a stinger injury in his neck. This is a huge problem. I had stingers when I played and they hurt.
A burner or stinger is when the nerves in the neck and shoulder are stretched or compressed after an impact. A neck roll or elevated shoulder pads are things to look for when observing Collins.
If you’re doing the math, that’s three starting offensive linemen dealing with something. And we haven’t even started on RB Ezekial Elliott.
The Bucs love to operate from a Cover-3 base. The 3-deep look with 4 underneath defenders is a bend but don’t break defense. It limits the big plays while giving up the shorter ones. This also allows SS Antoine Winfield Jr. to roam closer to the line of scrimmage as an extra box defender.
This doesn’t bode well for QB Dak Prescott and the receiving core. Last year, the Bucs defensive front 7 ranked 1st in the NFL in rushing yards allowed (80.6 per game).
The trio of NT Vita Vea, DE Ndamukong Suh, and DE Steve McClendon will prove to be too much for the Cowboys to overcome at the POA as Bucs DC Todd Bowles loves using a Bear front.
The Bear front leaves no offensive lineman uncovered. By default, this hurts the Cowboys zone-blocking scheme because linemen are unable to hit the second-level with ease off tandem blocks on the interior.
This will ultimately make the Cowboys offense one-dimensional, bottling up Elliott by suffocating his rush lanes.
The Bucs have speed on the edges with OLB Shaq Barrett, OLB Jason Pierre-Paul, and first-round pick OLB Joe Tryon. They have speed in the box. They have the scheme to play Cover-1 or Cover-0 on money downs, forcing three-and-outs, the game is over before it starts from a schematic standpoint.
Sure, the Cowboys have WR Amari Cooper, WR CeeDee Lamb, and WR Michael Gallup but if they can’t establish the run or keep Prescott upright, it doesn’t mean much.
At the end of the day, games are won down inside the trenches. When it comes to my prop bet on the over/under 52.5 rushing yards for RB Ezekial Elliot, take the under. (please read the disclaimer below as this is 100% entertainment purposes only)
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