4th and Goal: San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions
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Today, we are taking a deep dive into the Week 1 matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Detroit Lions.
Who comes out on top. How much will the 49ers win by? Who are the players that will jump out as the game unfolds? I answer all those questions and more, exclusively in this analysis piece. Without further ado, let’s peel back layers of the onion to get to the core, Brick-By-Brick!
49ers OL vs Lions DL
It doesn’t matter who your QB, RB, or WRs are if the offensive line can’t do their job. I’m a firm believer like my good friend and 2000 Executive of the Year GM Randy Mueller in building teams from the inside/out.
We all witnessed what happened in the Super Bowl. Kansas City Chiefs QB Pat Mahomes was rattled because he didn’t have his starting bookended tackles there giving him time to make proper reads. Something I predicted and where others made some serious bread (see my YouTube Super Bowl LIV preview above)
The Niners have arguably the best LT in the NFL. LT Trent Williams is going to impose his will down in the trenches against the Lions. He will essentially neutralize the left side of the line all by himself.
However, Silverback will face a familiar foe in 10-year veteran DE Michael Brockers. The St. Louis Rams 2012 1st-round pick (No. 14) joins new GM Brad Holmes and QB Jared Goff in Detroit.
Brockers is the only DE who may give Williams and RT Mike McGlinchey problems off the edge. DE Nicholas Williams and DE Kevin Strong are average at best. Attacking the Lions depth at DE should be a focal point of 49ers Kyle Shanahan’s game-plan.
Look for the 49ers to rack up at least 150 rushing yards on Sunday.
Lions rookies NT Alim McNeill & DE Levi Onwuzurike
This means plenty of outside zone runs. But don’t sleep on rookies NT Alim McNeill and DE Levi Onwuzurike. I like both players. But this isn’t their best matchup.
McNeill is a clog up the middle but that will be neutralized due to his inability to scrape down the line while Onwuzurike will be washed out of zone runs due to his inability to stay square when on the move.
The Niners athletic offensive linemen will prove to be too much. The name of this game is the rushing attack. QB Jimmy Garoppolo will have no problems in Week 1. The rushing attack will do all the work, JG just needs to game-manage and chew up valuable TOP (time of possession) while maintaining the lead.
Fantasy outlook WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle
The Lions are doomed from the start. They gave up the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers last year. But this year, they use a different scheme. Last year they used a Cover-1 roughly 50% of the time.
New DC Aaron Glenn will incorporate a Cover-2 or Cover-4, keeping everything in front. He comes from Saint DC Dennis Allen’s coaching tree, and Allen also loves to blitz on third-downs. Both should be apparent on Sunday.
Look for WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle to benefit.
Aiyuk should be your FLEX option this week. I don’t care who is in your lineup. Just joking, I care. But you get the point.
Look for Aiyuk to abuse the Lions cornerbacks who are nothing short of below average. From running shallow crossing digs, bubble screens, rub routes, and digs, Aiyuk should have a stat line similar to 5 catches for 70+ yards and 1 TD.
Kittle will be Kittle. He will run down the seams and despite seeing box coverage will still make plays on the ball for big gains. Look for Kittle to put up a stat line similar to 7 catches for 75 yards.
BEAST Prop Bet: WR Brandon Aiyuk over 4 catches + over 46.5 receiving yards
As stated in my analysis above, I fully expect Aiyuk to be a target. How big that target share will solely depend on how Shanahan plans to use rookie QB Trey Lance. I’m told he will be more of a runner and decoy as a passer. So if I’m the Lions, I’m selling out on the zone-read with a scrape-exchange.
Still, I can’t help but think Aiyuk will top five catches on Sunday while going over 46.5 receiving yards against a suspect Lions secondary. I would double down on both plays to hedge that bet. The call is yours, I’m rolling with both.
Fantasy outlook 49ers Defense
Now let’s talk about the flip side and talk about the Niners defense. They will EAT on Sunday. Sack lunch for EVERYONE.
DE Nick Bosa is back and that means everyone gets to eat. From DE Arik Armstead to DT Javon Kinlaw to DT D.J. Jones, the Niners will rack up at least five sacks on Sunday going up against first-round pick OT Penei Sewell while LT Taylor Decker is ruled out with a finger injury that requires surgery.
The Lions have arguably the best OC in Frank Ragnow but that won’t be enough.
In the end, I believe the 49ers will prove to be too much. They are -8 point favorites and the o/u is currently set at 45. Eat the points, and take the under, as I predict a score similar to 31-13.
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