4th and Goal: San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
The San Francisco 49ers are clearly not the same team after surviving their Week 1 win vs the Detroit Lions. Three starters are out indefinitely; including two who were sent to season-ending IR; CB Jason Verrett (ACL) and RB Raheem Mostert (cartilage knee damage).
The 49ers will also be without their starting weakside linebacker as OLB Dre Greenlaw pulled a groin while returning a 39-yard pick-six.
The injury bug is no stranger to the 49ers and I place blame on the strength and conditioning program. Injuries happen in the NFL. It’s a contact sport. But re-occurring injuries and new injuries seem to directly impact the Niners more than any other NFL team.
49ers/Eagles injury report
Could the type of physical therapy be the culprit? How about pre-game stretching techniques? Covering the 49ers as a beat writer and being NASM trained I know all too well the dynamics of what it takes to be game-ready. You simply can’t go through the motions on the most important part of the workout--stretching. Yet too many times over I see players just “dog it” and then injuries occur. This falls on the coaching staff. All parties play a role.
But back to football, the 49ers have to re-group and re-assess their personnel as they prep to play the Philadelphia Eagles.
Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo had his first 300-yard game since 2019. That’s positive news. WR Deebo Samuel moved into 2nd place all-time for receiving yards by a WR on opening day--(189), and rookie RB Elijah Mitchell set a franchise record for rushing yards by a rookie in his NFL debut (104).
The offense was firing on all cylinders.
Can that ride continue against an Eagles defense that features NT Javon Hargrave, DE Fletcher Cox, DE Brandon Graham, OLB Derek Barnett, and CB Darius Slay? I run game grades on all of the 32 NFL teams’ best players and Graham was average at best.
DE Brandon Graham | Grade: 5.3/10
He’s a household name at this point as I graded every single 2020 snap thanks to coaches film.
I don’t rely on PFF, I formulate my own analysis and use my grading system when exercising my year-end voting rights as a member of the PFWA (Pro Football Writers Association) for MVP, Comeback POY, Rookie of the Year, All-Pro teams, etc. Make no mistake, Graham is indeed average. Here are some of his 2020 numbers in my grading system:
23 missed run-fit assignments
19 missed tackles vs run
4 penalties resulting in 29-yards of hidden yardage
10 tackle-wins vs run
8 TFLs (-22) vs run
4.5 tackles for no-gain
16 QBP | 6.5 QBH | 8.5 sacks | 2 FF | 1 FR
Based on my grading system--you can clearly see that Graham excels in pass rush but is a liability in run-fits. That bodes well for San Francisco, as they like to move horizontally in those outside zone runs.
But what about NT Javon Hargrave?
Hargrave is the heart and soul of the D. Why? He’s the clog in the team’s 3-4 defense that makes that engine go. For those who don’t know the Eagles have transitioned from a traditional 4-3 base to a 3-4 odd-man front.
When OT Trent Williams was asked by a 49ers beat writer if the scheme is the same due to having the same personnel--Williams quickly explained uh no. The follow-up question was then based on the reporter’s analysis of the team’s current personnel. Again, Williams was like uh…3-4 is different from a 4-3. Common sense, right? One would think.
So you’re probably asking yourself, so you grade all 32 NFL teams? What’s the grade on Hargrave? I got you covered. In 2019 for the Steelers 3-4 man front, Hargrave played at an All-Pro level:
9 missed run-fit assignments
4 missed tackles vs run
1 penalty vs 49ers (defensive holding)
17 tackle-wins
2 TFLs (-6)
5 tackles for no-gain
4 sacks | 1 QBH | 11 QBP | 1 FF
Grade: 7.9/10
What about 2020 you ask? Again, different scheme calls for different techniques at the LOS, how you leverage splits, etc. No point in providing that analysis when Hargrave was asked to 3T or 2iT (4-3 base last year) as opposed to playing the zero or 1T (3-4) this year. It’s all about the scheme.
He will make life difficult for the 49ers but the Niners can neutralize Hargrave’s lack of conditioning with outside zone runs--essentially becoming a non-factor.
Fantasy outlook for TE George Kittle & Prop Bet over 68.5 rec. yards; 5.5 catches
Kittle absolutely shredded Philadelphia last year. In that game--he recorded season-highs for catches (15), receiving yards (183), and touchdowns (1). However, that was playing up against a 4-3 not a 3-4 (extra linebacker on intermediate routes).
Still, I think Kittle will shine. No Eagles linebacker possesses the combination of speed and instincts to stay with Kittle down the seams. He will win his matchups and he will be an x-factor.
Eagles DC Jonathan Gannon loves to use Cover-2 and Cover-4. The two-deep safety look means that they are more committed to stopping the pass rather than the run. It also means that Kittle will run deeper 12-15 yard seam routes forcing the inside linebacker or underneath defender to a decision--play the TE down the seam or provide aid for the boundary CB.
Look for Garoppolo to take what the defense gives him--Kittle short/dump passes while then utilizing the run with Mitchell to eventually open up the play-action pass. It’s the game-plan I anticipate the 49ers to roll with.
7 catches for 74 yards and 1 TD
Bottom Line
However, everything starts upfront. The 49ers were not the same defense it was under Saleh. I painted the picture months ago and we are seeing it now. But with that being said, they will be just good enough to beat a formidable NFC East opponent--anticipating a defensive struggle early on with a final score of the 49ers ultimately winning 23-20.