4th and Goal: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills
Time was running out so Pittsburgh Steelers OLB T.J. Watt made the executive decision to end his long-standing contract snag. In a power-play move, Watt inked a four-year, $112M deal with $80M in guarantees-- making him the highest-paid defensive player in terms of APY (Annual Per Year).
The move locks up Watt via the 2025 season. Now the team can shift their focus to football.
If you’re reading this that means you’re a BEASTwriter+ Newsletter member. It also means you will know things before they happen. With the subscription comes my spot-on predictions.
Today, we are taking a deep dive into the Week 1 matchup between the Steelers and the Buffalo Bills.
Who comes out on top? Who are the players that will jump out as the game unfolds? Who on your fantasy team should you start or sit? Which prop bets should you consider? I answer all those questions and more, exclusively in this analysis piece. Without further ado, let’s peel back layers of the onion to get to the core, Here We Go!
Steelers DEF 7 vs Bills OL
The Steelers boast the best defensive front 7 in the NFL. It’s not even close. They have been the gold standard over the last two years. Six of seven of the Steelers players have played at an Pro Bowl level based on my grading system.
I started covering the Steelers for Sports Illustrated in 2019 and over the years covering the Niners as a beat writer (2013-2018) for the team, I developed my own grading system.
I don’t rely on PFF, I formulate my own analysis and use my grading system when exercising my year-end voting rights as a member of the PFWA (Pro Football Writers Association) for MVP, Comeback POY, Rookie of the Year, All-Pro teams, etc.
So who are those six Steelers players who graded out so well? They are none other than NT Tyson Alualu, DE Stephon Tuitt, DE Cam Heyward, OLB T.J. Watt, OLB Alex Highsmith, and ILB Devin Bush.
Games are won in the trenches, the Steelers have that box checked on defense, even without DE Stephon Tuitt. A huge loss nonetheless. But one where he had his worst game of the 2020 season.
In my grading system against the Bills, Tuitt graded 3 out of 10. He had two missed run-fit assignments, one missed tackle, and zero tackle-wins. That’s basically being neutralized at the POA (Point of Attack).
So the loss isn’t as bad as one would think when peeling back a layer of the onion.
But what about the Bills? Can their offensive line hold up?
In order to predict the future, we need to delve into the past. Last year’s matchup saw the Bills register 27 carries for 104 rushing yards (3.9 avg.). The team is returning 9 of 11 starters including an upgrade at wide receiver in WR Emmanuel Sanders over WR John Brown.
The downgrade comes in at tight end where TE Dawson Knox replaces New York Jets TE Tyler Kroft.
During the offseason, I had the opportunity to catch up with my good friend A.J. Highsmith (Bills Area Scout) and he shed some light on the team’s pulse heading into the season. You can catch my full YouTube video on that below including his draft crush.
But the question remains, how does the Steelers vaunting front seven stack up against the Bills offensive line? After all, it’s the Steelers defense that will need to hold up its end of the bargain, if the Steelers have any hopes of pulling off an upset win on the road.
Bills OL banged up
The Bills are returning all five starters from 2020. But not all are fully healthy. LT Dion Dawkins was battling COVID-19 during training camp that effectively shut him down for weeks, calling it “one of the lowest points that I've ever been."
Dawkins said he dealt with shortness of breath, fever chills, coughing, and dehydration.
In mid-August, head coach Sean McDermott said the following in regards to Dawkins:
"He's not close to where he needs to be to play and help us," McDermott said. "So he's got a long road here. He's going to control what he can control, and so are we. He's got to continue to work hard to get himself back to where he's -- I mean, this is what, going on Week 4 of training camp at this point, so he's missed a lot of time."
Will Dawkins be in game shape by Sunday? How about that muscle memory? Just like with Watt, time will tell.
OG Cody Ford suffered torn meniscus
Then there’s OG Cody Ford. The 2019 2nd-round pick (No. 38) is rehabbing from a torn meniscus that effectively ended his 2020 season.
A torn meniscus is damage from a tear in the cartilage that is positioned on top of the tibia (shin bone) to allow the femur to glide when the knee joint moves.
A torn meniscus can lead to a feeling of your knee giving way, inability to move your knee normally, or persistent knee pain. You might be more likely to develop osteoarthritis in the affected knee. The symptoms are much like recovering from a torn ACL.
How will Ford bounce back? The Oklahoma product, who was replaced at right tackle and kicked inside to guard, essentially a player without a home as Highsmith would say, the outlook seems bright.
Bills GM Brandon Beane had this to say about his third-year player:
“I think we believe in Cody a lot and I think when he’s been out there, I think he’s done really good things,” said general manager Brandon Beane. “He doesn’t bat an eye. We play him at right tackle his first year, we move him in at guard, we bounced him around last year. Whether it’s left guard or right guard to start out, that’s not easy for a young player to just move around.”
Ford has been moved around because he didn’t pan out as a right tackle. Now they are trying to cross-train Ford on the interior. The bust label has been thrown around and for good reason. Do I think he’s a bust. No. I had Ford mocked to the Seattle Seahawks at No. 37 (via twitter). He went one pick later.
How will he handle the Steelers 3-4 base where NT Tyson Alualu might be moved around as a 4T, 3T while DE Chris Wormley rolls in at 0T? How can he stop a first-team All-Pro like DE Cam Heyward? It won’t be easy.
I’m giving the edge to the Steelers DL, despite the unit only recording 1 sack and 1 TFL vs the run in their Week 14 matchup. If you’re skeptical don’t be. My grading system will reveal that plenty of pressure was applied throughout all four quarters.
Week 14: QB Pressures vs Bills
OLB Alex Highsmith (4)
DE Cam Heyward (4)
OLB T.J. Watt (4)
DE Stephon Tuitt (2)
ILB Marcus Allen (1)
NB Mike Hilton (1)
FS Minkah Fitzpatrick (1)
*Good to note Watt also recorded two QB hits, so QB pressure won’t be a problem
Torn pectoral muscle & Torn rotator cuff
Then there's seven-year veteran OG John Feliciano. The Miami product tore his pectoral muscle during a weight lifting session to kick off the 2020 season. The injury would later sideline him for the next 12 weeks. Coincidentally just six months prior to that pec injury, Feliciano underwent surgery for a torn rotator cuff. Can you say injury prone?
If you’re doing the math, that’s 3 of the 5 starting offensive linemen dealing with something.
While I do believe the Bills will be solid on Sunday, I’m going to give the edge to the Steelers defense despite the absence of DE Stephon Tuitt. As my game grades reveal, the box scores don’t tell the whole story, don’t be a box score reader. That’s called being lazy.
Steelers Secondary vs Bills WR/TE
This is a matchup where the Bills gain the advantage. The Steelers have the best FS in my grading system with FS Minkah Fitzpatrick but SS Terrell Edmunds is a huge liability in pass coverage.
We all remember how bad ILB Mark Barron was just two years ago. Edmunds is arguably worse. But to play a little bit of devil’s advocate, he did improve as the season wore on.
But the biggest concern for me comes down to CB Joe Haden and CB Cam Sutton/James Pierre. In my grading system, Haden has been on a sharp decline. You can read my full in-depth analysis on Haden in my BEASTwriter+ article above or click here. It’s a huge reason why GM Kevin Colbert is letting him walk, as this is his last dance.
The Bills game-plan will be simple. Incorporate 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) and take advantage of the Steelers cornerbacks. Don’t try to run on them. It won’t work. Bills OC Brian Daboll is known to favor deep crossers which are longer developing plays.
The combination of 1st-team All-Pro WR Stefon Diggs, WR Cole Beasley, and WR Emmanuel Sanders should make life difficult for the Steelers secondary who mainly operate from a Cover-1 or Cover-3.
Those respective cover-shells are aimed at stopping the run first while limiting the big play, essentially giving up the shorter routes. The Cover-1 is more aggressive in that it’s man-to-man with a single-high safety covering the centerfield to the boundary.
This cover shell will need to be closely monitored. As stated above Daboll loves to use deep crossing routes, that can screw up coverage assignments on the backend as pick-plays become more available. This will allow Diggs, Beasley, and Sanders to have plenty of real estate to work with. We saw this in Week 14. Here is the full spectrum of my grading system when it comes to the Steelers secondary.
CB Cam Sutton: 4/7 for 42 yards
CB Steven Nelson: 6/13 for 73 yards
ILB Marcus Allen : 2/2 for 8 yards
NB Mike Hilton: 3/5 for 16 yards
CB Justin Layne: 1/2 for 12 yards
SS Terrell Edmunds: 2/4 for 11 yards
FS Minkah Fitzpatrick: 1/2 for 13 yards
ILB Avery Williamson: 4/6 for 47 yards
This stuff does not show up in the box score, you need to have coaches film, grade every single snap, cross-check with those in the know, and then take the raw data and get to the core. It’s tedious, time-consuming, but fun. It’s why my system works.
Let’s push even further, and get to the core. The following players gave up 1st-downs when targeted in their cover-shell based on my grading system:
CB Cam Sutton (3)
CB Steven Nelson (3)
NB Mike Hilton (1)
CB Justin Layne (1)
ILB Avery Williamson (2)
*The Steelers also yielded two touchdowns via the air. The culprits; Nelson and Fitzpatrick.
Fantasy Outlook for WR Stefon Diggs
Bills WR Stefon Diggs will go off. In his last meeting, he hauled in 10 catches for 130 receiving yards (13.0 avg.) and 1 TD. I fully expect that stat line to continue on Sunday, as I predict he will have a stat line similar to 9 catches for 117 yards and 1 TD.
The Bills may not have a top-tier rushing attack but they do have dual-threat QB Josh Allen. He’s an MVP candidate according to most. Look for him to move the chains while keeping the Bills offense on the field using Diggs as an intermediate security blanket.
Steelers OL vs Bills DL
The Steelers are on the opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to continuity on the OL. Four starters are no longer with the team. You can catch the full in-depth article above or click here.
I’ll admit the offensive line is not as strong as last year’s but it’s promising. But an empire wasn’t built overnight. Unfortunately for the Steelers, they didn’t have much success in Week 14.
The team registered 17 carries for 47 yards (2.8 avg.). No wonder GM Kevin Colbert opted to select the Bama product with his first-round pick.
BEAST Prop Bet: RB Najee Harris over 15 carries
All signs point to Harris getting the lion share of the touches. Based on my grading system, the prop bet to take in this game is Harris and the over 14.5 carries. Sure, the Steelers may have neglect the run at some point, but I don’t think they can afford doing it until the fourth-quarter. Based on my analysis and grading system, I would make the play for Harris to at least get 15+ carries on Sunday.
Steelers WR vs Bills DB
The Bills have one of the most underrated CBs in the NFL. Some people believe Miami Dolphins CB Xavien Howard is top-5 CB others say Baltimore Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey--my pick based on my game-grades continues to be Bills CB Tre’Davious White.
White was ranked No. 4 in my grading system last year. He was right behind Rams CB Jalen Ramsey, Packers CB Jaire Alexander, and Patriots CB J.C. Jackson. Not too many cover corners better than him.
I graded White’s every snap last year and Week 14 played admirably. He was graded 8 out of 10.
He had one neutral-zone infraction yielding 5 yards of hidden yardage
1 QB Hit
2 PBUs
Targeted: 3/6 for 27 yards
The Bills used him on corner blitzes and I expect more of the same in the season-opener.
As for the Steelers they clearly have a plethora of weapons to target; WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR Chase Claypool, WR Diontae Johnson, and TE Pat Freirmuth and TE Eric Ebron.
The Bills have a nice secondary led by White, SS Jordan Poyer, and FS Micah Hyde. It will be an ultimate chess game, and it all comes back to the Steelers offensive line. Can they hold off against a pass-rush that was addressed this offseason?
I hate to say it and hope I’m wrong but I just don’t see it happening. The inexperienced line will have missed assignments off twists/stunts and delayed blitzes. I can’t help but think, growing pains will be in the cards in the season-opener.
The bottom line, games are won down in the trenches. To think the inexperience yet talented Steelers offensive line can just walk into a hostile environment and impose their will is fool’s gold. I hope I’m wrong but I see the Bills winning a close one 27-20.
BEASTwriter+ is subscription-based and FREE for the first month of the NFL season. Join our FREE newsletter to stay up to date on all things NFL, by clicking link below:
Disclaimer: BEASTwriterNFL.com is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.
Although we talk about betting online on our websites pages, it is the responsibility of all visitors to this website to check current local laws in their own area or country before doing any gambling online. It is your responsibility to know and follow your local laws in place.
Although we try our best to provide accurate information on BEASTwriterNFL.com, we cannot be held responsible for any inaccurate or incorrect information which is posted on our websites pages. Please contact us if you notice any information that is inaccurate or incorrect on BEASTwriterNFL.com.
If you visit any website we link to from BEASTwriterNFL.com you have left our site. By visiting our website you confirm that you understand that it is possible to lose some or all monies used when betting on sports or doing any gambling. You cannot hold BEASTwriterNFL.com responsible for any such losses.