4th and Goal: Las Vegas Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers
If you’re reading this that means you’re a BEASTwriter+ Newsletter member. It also means you will know things before they happen. With the subscription comes my spot-on predictions.
Today, we are taking a deep dive into the Week 2 matchup between the Steelers and the Las Vegas Raiders.
Who comes out on top? Who are the players that will jump out as the game unfolds? Who on your fantasy team should you start or sit? Which prop bets should you consider? I answer all those questions and more, exclusively in this analysis piece. Without further ado, let’s peel back layers of the onion to get to the core, Here We Go!
Steelers/Raiders injury report
The standard is the standard
If you’re a Yinzer, you already know the cultural identity of the next man-up mentality. Made famous by Coach T--the Steelers way is all about “one man’s misfortune is another man’s opportunity.”
Simply put--the “standard is the standard.” That’s the gold standard mindset.
DE Stephon Tuitt
The Steelers continue to play without my 2020 PFWA 1st-team All-Pro selection selection DE Stephon Tuitt. Tuitt is so underrated it’s criminal. In my grading system, Tuitt finished his 2020 campaign with a grade of 6.9/10. Yet-- in 2021 he has yet to take an NFL snap due to personal matters and lack of conditioning.
Tuitt’s misfortune means DE Chris Wormley’s opportunity. The player the team traded for yielding a 2021 5th-round pick to the Baltimore Ravens, Wormley has played admirably in Tuitt’s absence. Expect that to continue as Wormley earns his two-year contract extension.
But Wormley is simply a complementary role player not a game-changer. The same can’t be said of Heyward and Alualu.
DE Cam Heyward & NT Tyson Alualu
Heyward and Alualu are the clogs up the middle. They make others better by simply occupying space while keeping their second-level backers clean.
Heyward doubles down on those gains by generating ox-strengh pressure up the middle. He’s the best IDL outside of Los Angeles Rams DE Aaron Donald.
I graded every single snap of not only Heyward but the top IDL around the NFL and Heyward consistently wins out the past two seasons. You can read my in-depth analysis piece on Heywward in the article below or click here.
I don’t rely on PFF, I formulate my own analysis and use my grading system when exercising my year-end voting rights as a member of the PFWA (Pro Football Writers Association) for MVP, Comeback POY, Rookie of the Year, All-Pro teams, etc. Make no mistake, Heyward is among the game’s best.
However, he is still overlooked by the National media. That’s a motivator for him aside from Coach T joking with him about father time (see article above).
Last week witnessed Heyward man-handle the Buffalo Bills en route to 2 tackles, 1.0 sack, 2 PBUs, 1 FF, and 1 FR. He was all over the field making plays--filling up the box score.
I don’t understand why all of a sudden the media is catching on--he’s been doing this for the better half of the last five years. It’s just another day at the office for Cam. Just saying. If you know you know. Don’t be a box score reader. Grade every single snap of the player.
Fast forward to Sunday and I fully expect Heyward to dominate the line of scrimmage. The Raiders interior line is the weak link. Can you name a two starting offensive lineman? Exactly. This is where the Steelers hold the decisive edge.
Teamed up with Alualu, who also played at an All-Pro level last season--the two will create havoc up front on base downs while OLB T.J. Watt, OLB Alex Highsmith, OLB Melvin Ingram scream off the edge.
This will make the Raiders one-dimensional.
Fantasy outlook for RB Peyton Barber/Kenyan Drake
The Raiders will be without third-year RB Josh Jacobs (ankle/toe). You add in a suspect offensive line with questionable technique to move the d-line off their grass and you have a one-dimensional offense.
16 carries for 67 yards
How Steelers attack TE Darren Waller
However, the storyline of the day has to be Raiders 2020 Pro Bowl TE Darren Waller. He can ultimately reset the history books if he reaches the century mark. It would be Waller’s 5th consecutive game with 100+ receiving yards--breaking the TE record.
I don’t see that happening come Sunday. I wrote an 18-hour in-depth piece on Waller’s Monday Night Footall game. I cross-checked my analysis with coaches, scouts, along with my grading system to formulate my game-plan of how I believe the Steelers will play Waller on Sunday.
You can watch the full spectrum of Waller’s 10 catches in the article below or click here. This is what I believe separates BEASTwriter+ Newsletter from everyone else. The minute details of going via game-film while utilizing my BWF Network to formulate my continued spot-on predictions.
Coach T on Waller: Labeling him a TE is “less than appropriate.”
On Tuesday, Coach T labeled Waller a WR in a tight end’s body. I agree 100 percent. How many times during a game do you see Waller lined up as a true Y in a three-point stance?
Coach Gruden moves him around pre-snap so much that defense’s have to adjust their pre-snap read. He makes life difficult for opposing defensive coordinators. However, with that being said, I don’t anticipate Waller having a good day.
BEAST Prop Bet: TE Darren Waller under 74.5 receiving yards (-115)
Waller is currently projected to have 74.5 receiving yards.
After evaluating the game film and breaking down my game grades, don’t be shocked if the Steelers come out on top. In a game where I see the Raiders trying to force-feed Waller early and often--success won’t be easy, as I predict a stat line similar to 7 catches for 55 yards (7.9 avg.) and 0 TDs.
2x 1st-team All-Pro FS Minkah Fitzpatrick
The Steelers thrive in a Cover-3 and with Waller struggling against that cover shell in Week 1--DC Keith Butler will optimize his weapons by using 1st-team All-Pro FS Minkah Fitzpatrick just like he did going up against San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle--Week 3 in 2019.
Fitzpatrick will ultimately neutralize Waller down the seams but not before the Steelers front seven slows down the Y receiver with a “chip” at the LOS. That will then buy time for coverage adjustments on the backend.
Fitzpatrick is one-of-a-kind. Another one of my PFWA first-team All-Pro selections, the past two seasons. He’s also due for a new deal.
Teammate CB Joe Haden talked about his All-World FS, as he had this to say:
“When you have a free safety that’s the best FS in the world, you don’t really kinda wanna move him off that spot. I like Minkah at the FS because I feel more comfortable if I get beat over the top.”
This is a game where I believe Fitzpatrick will shine in an ultimate game of matchups down the seams. The Steelers can also simply box coverage Waller while getting after the quarterback organically--this does not bode well for the Raiders.
BEAST Prop Bet: Heavy dose of RB Najee Harris over 18.5 carries; 71.5 rushing yards
If you follow me on Twitter, YouTube, Twitch, Discord, etc., you would know that RB Najee Harris is my draft crush. Not being biased because we are both from the Bay Area or that I am a huge Alabama fan. He’s just wired and built different.
Last week, I hit on my Harris prop bet of him topping 14.5 carries. I look to continue that trend with Harris getting even more carries in his home debut. The current projection for the prop bet is set at 18.5. I think Harris will at least have 20.
Why? The answer lies in the TOP and the dynamics of the two team’s schemes. The Steelers showed their true grit by sticking to the run despite averaging 3.6 yards per carry Week 1. Peel back another layer of the onion to get to the core--2.5 yards per carry if you remove WR Chase Claypool’s 25-yard end-around.
This tells us one thing--the Steelers will not neglect the run. Based on my analysis and grading system, I would make the play for Harris to at least get 20+ carries on Sunday, while recording a stat line similar to 22 carries for 101 rushing yards (4.6 avg.) and 1 TD. The current prop bet is set at 71.5 (-114), take Harris and the over.
BEAST Prop Bet: WR Chase Claypool over 47.5 receiving yards
While Harris proves his 1st-round value--WR Chase Claypool will prove why he should be the team’s WR1.
I wrote an 12-hour in-depth piece on Claypool’s Week 1 performance where he graded out extremely well in my grading system despite only hauling in 3 catches on five targets. You can read that 12-hour in-depth piece below or click here.
Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger echoed my analysis on Tuesday even labeling him as potentially “unstoppable.”
The physical traits are there--the opportunities are not. However, when targeted Claypool makes the most of his opportunities. Based on my analysis and grading system, I would make the play for Claypool to at least get 47.5 receiving yards (-114) while recording a stat line similar to 3 catches for 67 receiving yards (22.3 avg.) and 1 TD.
Bottom Line
On paper the Raiders are no match for the Steelers in all three phases. However, that’s why we play the game--anything can happen on any given Sunday. But not this Sunday as I have the Steelers covering the spread (-6) winning this game--31-16.
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