4th and Goal: Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
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Today, we are taking a deep dive into the Week 3 matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals.
Who comes out on top? Who are the players that will jump out as the game unfolds? Who on your fantasy team should you start or sit? Which prop bets should you consider? I answer all those questions and more, exclusively in this analysis piece. Without further ado, let’s peel back layers of the onion to get to the core, Here We Go!
Steelers/Bengals injury report
“The standard is the standard.”
Throughout the week, this was the underlying message from Pittsburgh country. “The standard is the standard.” It’s an ideology that Coach T instills in his team since becoming the head coach back in 2007.
Week 2 witnessed the Steelers playing without the following starters in all or parts of that game. Those players are listed below:
NT Tyson Alualu (fractured ankle)
DE Stephon Tuitt (IR)
ILB Devin Bush (groin)
OLB T.J. Watt (groin)
OLB Alex Highsmith (groin)
CB Joe Haden (groin)
Where’s the EDGE?
The good news is that two of those starters will be ready to go on Sunday as both Bush and Haden were full participants in Thursday’s practice. A clear sign that they will be more inclined to start than sit.
However, the news isn’t so promising for second-year OLB Alex Highsmith. The player responsible for filling OLB Bud Dupree’s shoes--sustained a groin injury in last week’s loss to the Las Vegas Raiders.
The injury seems to be serious enough to keep him out of this week’s game-- he was officially listed for all practices as DNP. That’s not a good sign, usually, a player would be 50-50 on Gameday if he was listed on Thursday’s report as limited, but Highsmith wasn’t even limited--fast forward to today and he’s officially listed as “OUT” for Sunday’s game.
That could’ve played a role in the team signing OLB Taco Charlton to the 16-team practice squad. Both Highsmith and Watt are dealing with groin injuries while OLB Melvin Ingram is the only remaining healthy EDGE worthy of starter reps.
The trio was supposed to keep fresh legs on the field--it appears more depth is needed after those respective injuries.
Note: Watt was limited in Thursday’s practice and “QUESTIONABLE” to play on Sunday--he’s officially listed as “OUT.”
Who steps up in NT Tyson Alualu absence?
Third-year NT Isaiah Buggs will definitely get the first look. He is the most seasoned and experienced NT currently on the roster. That doesn’t mean he’s good. If you read my [“Top 3 things Steelers must address ahead of Bengals matchup”] you would know that Buggs was graded average at best in my grading system.
You would also know that Buggs is nothing more than an emergency backup up to this point--based on the sample size of his limited reps through two seasons.
Buggs spoke to Steelers beat writers and shed some light on being thrust into the starting lineup:
“It’s a collective thing up front. We all practice hard, we are all in the same meeting room, so we all got to contribute and keep the standard.
I’m excited to get this opportunity, I played behind Tyson. Tyson taught me the ins and outs of the game so I just got to keep that legacy going for Tyson.”
DE Cam Heyward talks trust with young DL
Team captain and first-team All-Pro DE Cam Heyward admitted that the standard is the standard but replicating Alualu’s production is no easy task.
He cited the trust factor of playing alongside Alualu and DE Stephon Tuitt over the years formed a strong bond of team chemistry that is hard to replicate with the younger players.
“Tyson is a savvy vet, that’s played a lot in different situations so--it’s not just like we’re gonna replicate what he brings.
We just gotta have guys that are able and know what they’re doing out there. Biggest thing I had with Tuitt and Tyson is trust. And we’ve built that over the years.”
Heyward can’t do it all himself. It will be up to the entire defensive front seven to keep Bengals QB Joe Burrow from picking them apart.
The weapons are endless; Coach T talked about WR Ja’Marr Chase’s ability to take the top off the defense, WR Tee Higgins being a big target between the 20s, and WR Tyler Boyd being one of the best slot receivers in the game--add in RB Joe Mixon and you have a problem on your hands.
Still, the Steelers boast one of the best front 7’s in the NFL. In a game of matchups--I believe this is where the game will be won. Who can control the clock? Who can control time of possession? Who can keep opposing offenses on the sideline?
The Bengals were held to just 69 rushing yards facing a Chicago Bears 3-4 base defense. The Steelers are far superior when healthy. They aren’t. This will be an even matchup with Alualu, Tuitt, and Highsmith all out for the game.
BEAST Prop Bet: WR Chase Claypool over 64.5 receiving yards
In two career games vs the Bengals--Claypool has racked up 7 catches for 110 receiving yards (15.7 avg.) and 2 TDs.
No question WR Diontae Johnson (knee) status directly impacts target share. But even with Johnson, the target share was relatively high--18 targets.
Look for Claypool to be the primary go-to target on those intermediate routes while taking advantage of his physique over the likes of NB Mike Hilton, CB Eli Apple, and CB Chidobe Awuzie.
That’s all assuming the Steelers offensive line can keep Roethlisberger upright. I am assuming they do--despite facing DE Trey Hendrickson, DT Larry Ogunjobi, DT D.J. Reader, DE Sam Hubbard among others.
Based on my analysis and grading system, I would make the play for Claypool to at least get 64.5 receiving yards (-115) while recording a stat line similar to 5 catches for 74 receiving yards (14.8 avg.) and 1 TD.
BEAST Prop Bet: WR Ja’Marr Chase over 4.5 catches
Bengals WR Tee Higgins (shoulder) was officially listed as DNP the first two days of practice--he’s officially listed as “DOUBTFUL” for Sunday after being limited in Friday’s practice.
That will directly impact the Bengals offensive game-plan. In QB Joe Burrow’s lone game vs the Steelers last season--he targeted Higgins a team-high 9 times. The results were promising, as Higgins finished with a team-high for catches (7), receiving yards (115), and TDs (1).
A unhealthy Higgins means more target share for Burrow’s favorite LSU target--Chase. Through two games, Chase has witnessed 11 targets good for 7 catches for 155 receiving yards (22.1 avg.) and 2 TDs.
Look for those targets to increase on Sunday as he goes up against CB Joe Haden, CB Cam Sutton, and NB Tre Norwood. Based on my analysis and grading system, I would make the play for Chase to at least get 4.5 catches (EVEN) while recording a stat line similar to 6 catches for 96 receiving yards (16.0 avg.) and 1 TD.
Bottom Line
over/under | 43.5
-3 Steelers
This game should be a defensive struggle early on. In a game where two teams are evenly matched, in the end, I believe the Steelers come out on top, as it’s hard to go against them losing two straight home games. Steelers win a close one to the wire 23-20.
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