4th and Goal: BEAST Prop Bets & Fantasy Football advice
If you’re reading this that means you’re a BEASTwriter+ Newsletter member. It also means you will know things before they happen. With the subscription comes my spot-on predictions.
Today, we are taking a deep dive into the Week 1 matchups around the NFL.
What are the best prop bets to play? Who are the players that will jump out as the game unfolds? Who should I start and who should I bench? I answer all those questions and more, exclusively in this analysis piece. Without further ado, let’s peel back layers of the onion to get to the core, Here We Go!!!
New York Jets @ Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers have a favorable matchup against New York Jets HC Robert Saleh. I’m told the Jets new coach will be protecting his young inexperienced boundary CBs by using more Cover-2 and Cover-4 (quarters coverage) in the season-opener.
Saleh even alluded to the fact that Panthers WR Robby Anderson will pose a problem between the 20s. You can read my full article on that above or click here. That means more zone coverage and less single-high safety looks.
Prop Bets: Panthers WR D.J. Moore over 58.5 receiving yards, 4.5 catches
The Panthers also have four-year WR D.J. Moore. The Maryland product is arguably the most underrated WR in the NFL. He should be in line for a Pro Bowl berth but often overshadowed on a horrible team.
In OC Joe Brady’s system, Moore set career-highs in receiving yards (1,193) and reception average (18.1 avg.) while leading the NFL in games with 30+ big plays (10). No question, he will be out for blood, taking advantage of Saleh’s bend but don’t break cover-shell.
The Cover-2 and Cover-4 allow the safeties to play their respective splits--covering the hash to boundary or hash to numbers. Jets FS Marcus Maye is playing in a contract year while being stripped of his captain rank. He is the glue to that secondary. If he’s unable to cover ground, it’s game over.
The combination of Anderson and Moore may be too much vertical game for the Jets to handle. Both those players can fly. The prop bet to play is a two-way power-play, as I predict more to have a stat line to similar to 6 catches for 73 receiving yards. In the end, you get more with MOORE in Week 1!!!!
Prop Bets: Panthers WR Terrace Marshall over 39.5 receiving yards, 3.5 catches
Then there’s rookie WR Terrace Marshall. There’s a reason I have him on my fantasy team. He’s going to have a solid rookie campaign.
If you follow me on Twitter or YouTube you would know I labeled Marshall a STEAL! He now reunites with his former OC from LSU to Carolina.
The rapport is there. Marshall is another prop bet play. Taking over for the departed WR Curtis Samuel, I fully expect Marshall to take advantage of the slot role, as I predict a stat line similar to five catches for 70 yards and 1 TD. Just like with Moore, double down on your gains with this power-play move.
Prop Bets: Atlanta Falcons TE Kyle Pitts over 4.5 catches
The Atlanta Falcons didn’t draft TE Kyle Pitts No. 4 overall to be an inline blocker. Since 2000, only five tight-ends were drafted inside the top 10. He’s a wide receiver in a tight-end body. His target share Week 1 will be around 7.
I fully expect QB Matt Ryan to look for him down the seams and as a security blanket in moving the chains. Philadelphia Eagles MLB Eric Wilson is fast, instinctive, and fluid in his backpedal to maintain proper leverage as a curl/hook defender. He will certainly give Pitts a run for his money.
But the Falcons may be playing from behind, and that means neglecting the run and airing it out. Furthermore, do you really trust OLB Alex Singleton and OLB Genard Avery to be able to stay stride-for-stride at the top of Pitt’s routes? No.
Taking over for teammate TE Hayden Hurst as the Y receiver, look for Pitts to rack up a stat line similar to 5 catches for 49 receiving yards. Pitts should see his fair share of target share in his rookie campaign and make the most of those opportunities. Take the prop bet over.
Prop Bets: Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf over 74.5 receiving yards
Seattle Seahawks may just lead the NFL in receiving yards when the 2021 regular season concludes. That’s how highly I think of him. He’s also on my fantasy team for a reason.
The 2019 2nd-round pick (No. 64) has a strong track record just like his deep speed in season openers. In two games, Metcalf was targeted 14 times; racking up 8 catches for 184 receiving yards (23.0 avg.) and 1 TD. Look for that trend to continue.
Colts DC Matt Eberflus loves to play a conservative Cover-3. That means Metcalf will have plenty of real estate to work with on those deep-outs. If you have strong WRs you can run speed-outs all day. You need strong cover corners to play this scheme to defend the short passes.
The Colts have CB Rock-Ya Sin and backup CB T.J. Carrie. Good luck. They also get more conservative on money-downs (3rd) by using quarter-quarter-half coverage. This plays to Metcalf’s advantage.
Metcalf can quickly turn an 8-yard speed out into a 75-yard house call. He will make some BIG plays come Sunday. Look for Metcalf to rack up a stat line similar to 4 catches for 88 receiving yards and 1 TD. Take the prop bet over.
Prop Bets: San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle over 4.5 catches
In four season-openers, San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle has had no less than four catches in one of those games. That game was last year. The sample size will tell us based on the raw data that Kittle should easily cover.
But the opponent plays as much a role in scheming against a player, as the TOP domination, the 49ers are expected to have with their run-game.
Still, Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo loves Kittle and in my 4th and Goal, already predicted a stat line similar to 7 catches for 75 yards.
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