2022 NFL Mock Draft (FINAL) | Top 16-20 features two more WRs plucked
This is the third installment of my 2022 NFL Mock Draft (FINAL) based on where each team currently is slated to pick (no trades).
Please keep in mind, my mocks are based on how I actually see the draft unfolding (based on analytics) & NOT whether or not I would select that player.
I’ll be breaking down the first-round of the draft in increments of 5-10 picks.
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New Orleans Saints (via Eagles) | R1 (No. 16)
My Pick | OT Trevor Penning
My hit-rate on Loomis R1 draft picks | 2/8 (25%)
Analysis:
This pick comes down to OT or NT Jordan Davis (if available). Why? Again, comes down to draft position. The Saints hold multiple R1 picks.
Based on my analytics of team needs behind them before they are on the clock again, makes me believe OT or NT is the play.
The BPA pick is undoubtedly NT Jordan Davis but he’s off the board. Leaving Loomis to roll the dice here and reach for OT Trevor Penning.
The Saints just lost highly prized free-agent, OT Terron Armstead, to the Miami Dolphins. Do you really think backup OT James Hurst is the answer?
Nope.
This is why the Saints traded multiple draft picks to get an additional R1 this year.
Since becoming the team’s GM, Loomis has drafted three R1 OTs. All of them were at least 6-6, 310 pounds. Penning is 6-7, 330.
To peel back another layer of the onion to get to the core, Loomis has only drafted two R1 DTs during that time span. Those players: DT Sedrick Ellis & DT Sheldon Rankins.
Sure, adding Davis would be an ideal situation. Especially since DT David Onyemata is due for a big payday. But OT is a bigger weakness, and no QB can have success without a stable OL.
Look for the Saints to get offensive and find a blindside LT at No. 16.
LA Chargers | R1 (No. 17)
My Pick | ILB Devin Lloyd
My hit-rate on Telesco R1 draft picks | 2/7 (29%)
Analysis:
The Chargers have the least amount of needs of any NFL team thanks to a free-agency splurge.
No off-ball linebacker has been selected yet and they have their choice of ILB Nakobe Dean and ILB Devin Lloyd.
Dean is my highest rated defensive player in this entire draft class but does GM Tom Telesco agree?
The right side of the offensive line also needs help. They could draft OG Zion Johnson. Another one of my favorite players in this entire class.
But I can see Lloyd being the pick as this is a NEED based pick while likely being higher on their board.
Chargers also invested a R1 pick in ILB Kenneth Murray back in 2020 while signing special-teams ace and familiar face ILB Troy Reeder from the Rams.
Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints) | R1 (No. 18)
My Pick | WR Treylon Burks
My hit-rate on Roseman R1 draft picks | 1/5 (20%)
Analysis:
I’m hedging my bet here. The chances that the Eagles will draft two WRs in back-to-back picks is highly unlikely. Still, one of them will come off the board. I’m willing to take a 50% chance here, if they don’t draft one at No. 15.
Much like Charles Davis of NFL Network, I was initially thinking ILB Nakobe Dean or ILB Devin Lloyd but that’s not GM Howie Roseman’s R1 method of operation.
He has gone on the offensive as of late--probably because of his offensive head coaches.
I’m plugging WR Treylon Burks as the pick at No. 18. He adds another dimension to the Eagles offense that complements 2021 R1 pick, WR DeVonta Smith.
At 6-3, 225, and 33 1/2 arm-length, Burks has the size to be a real threat between the 20s. He can win 50-50 balls and understands the leverage game when breaking off his stem at the top of the route.
His downfall was a suspect NFL combine but that shouldn’t deter teams like the Eagles from making him an R1 pick.
New Orleans Saints (via Eagles) | R1 (No. 19)
My Pick | WR Jahan Dotson
My hit-rate on Loomis R1 draft picks | 2/8 (25%)
Analysis:
Saints are on the clock after finding their LT (OT Trevor Penning) to pair with RT Ryan Ramczyk at No. 16.
Toughness is something that GM Mickey Loomis has always loved from the WR position. Speed is also on the menu. Meet WR Jahan Dotson.
This year’s version of WR Brandin Cooks, Dotson would be a perfect fit in Nola. He has the soft hands, lateral agility, and deep speed to threaten safeties over the top.
New Orleans No. 1 WR last year was WR Marquez Callaway:
46 catches for 698 receiving yards, 6 TDs
Stats don’t lie. Saints need production from the position and fast.
Pittsburgh Steelers | R1 (No. 20)
My Pick | QB Malik Willis
My hit-rate on Colbert R1 draft picks | 2/8 (25%)
Analysis:
To peel back layers of the onion to get to the core--although I have a 25% hit-rate with Colbert’s R1 draft picks, four of those missed draft picks came on the same side of the football, while another draft pick was getting the position right (CB) but not the correct player.
I also predicted the team to trade up for ILB Devin Bush so the receipts check out.
Now let’s get to the pick. Colbert understands value. He also understands this is a weak QB draft class. Many NFL mocks from ESPN to NFL Network have the Steelers selecting a QB.
ESPN Mel Kiper | QB Malik Willis
ESPN Todd McShay | QB Malik Willis
NFLN Charles Davis | QB Malik Willis
NFL Daniel Jeremiah | QB Kenny Pickett
NFLN Lance Zierlein | QB Malik Willis (trade up)
Yes, these are the mock gurus that I value most and the ones I compare my own analysis too in terms of valuation vs evaluation in delving into that crystal ball. Along with NFLN Peter Schrager and Bucky Brooks.
If we are playing the numbers game, this is my record when compared to the best on mock drafts--dating back to 2015:
***Note: From 2015-2018 it was a three-man race between myself, Kiper and Mayock.
2015: 1st
2016: T-2nd | Winner: Mike Mayock
2017: 1st
2018: T-2nd | Winner: Mike Mayock
2019: T-2nd | Winner: Daniel Jeremiah
2020: 3rd | Winner: Charles Davis
2021: T-1st w/McShay
Colbert is entering his final year in PIT, he understands he needs to leave the keys to the ferrari in good hands. They added QB Mitch Trubisky in free-agency and now get the high-upside QB as a potential long-term successor. Give me QB Malik Willis despite being a REACH.
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